A simple reason explains why U.S. economic growth seemed to hit a wall in the final three months of the year.

Trump has revealed economic data before its official release on multiple occasions, raising questions about possible policy violations

The economy is losing momentum, according to new numbers from the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge. The Personal Consumption Expenditures, which tracks what consumers pay for goods and

The US economy grew at an annualised rate of just 1.4 per cent in the fourth quarter, as the longest federal shutdown hit government spending, while a crucial inflation measure crept higher.

The core PCE price index was expected to increase 3% from a year ago in December. GDP was projected to rise at a 2.5% pace in Q4.

The economy grew at a 1.4% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported in an estimate of gross domestic product, well below expectations as President Donald Trump and Republicans stare down the midterm elections.

Discover why real GDP offers a more accurate picture of economic growth by adjusting for inflation and when nominal GDP might be more useful for short-term analysis.

Q4 2025 GDP printed at 1.4%, well below consensus, reflecting significant economic weakness. Read the full analysis here.

Growth cooled in the quarter largely due to less government spending and a larger trade deficit.

Economists expect that GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.5% in the fourth quarter, down from 4.4% in the third quarter. The report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Follow along with our live coverage of the report below.