Recession Probability Sits At 40% To 50%—Here Is How To Size That Risk

Recessions are not predictable with precision. But they are priceable, and at 40% to 50% probability, the risk deserves ...

Goldman Sachs raised the US recession probability to 25% — here's what the Iran war and rising oil prices mean for your job security

Goldman Sachs has lifted its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 25%, but the headline number only captures part of the ...

Wall Street analysts say recession odds are rising as oil prices remain volatile: 'Risks have increased materially'

Wall Street analysts increased their probabilities for a recession as oil prices remain volatile amid the Middle East war.

US Recession 2026: Wall Street and CEOs warn — top indicators you need to watch

US recession warning 2026: US recession fears are escalating as rising oil prices and global tensions, particularly the ...

Mark Zandi warns recession odds are creeping toward 50%, and the Iran war could launch us into economic turmoil by midyear

As oil steadily climbs above $100 per barrel and Iran rejects a U.S. peace proposal, Moody’s chief economist says recession ...

Moody's says a US recession is increasingly 'hard to avoid' amid Iran war

Moody’s Analytics model forecasts a 49% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, the closest probability in years.View ...

This scenario could tip the US into recession. Here's how to prepare.

A coin flip. That's the odds the US enters a recession in the next 12 months, according to a Moody's Analytics model. How to ...

Trump's trade war has Goldman Sachs ratcheting up recession odds

Goldman Sachs has raised its 12-month recession probability from 35% to 45%, but that is set to rise further if the tariffs ...

Iran war fallout raises odds of a U.S. recession, economists say

Economists say the conflict in Iran is making a recession more likely, with higher energy prices hitting consumers and ...

Recession calls are growing as the oil market sees no end in sight to Iran-war disruptions

The bull case for economic growth has weakened as oil spikes. Goldman raised its recession odds this week and others see a ...
Seeking Alpha

Probability of recession remains low; the Fed is positioned to support markets – Evercore ISI’s Emanuel

Julian Emanuel, senior managing director at Evercore ISI, believes the probability of a recession remains low and that the Federal Reserve is positioned to support markets. In an interview with CNBC, ...
Seeking Alpha

The U.S. Economy May Be Slowing, But Recession Risk Remains Low

TMC Research’s nowcast of recession risk continues to indicate a low probability that a downturn has started or is imminent. The economy has probably slowed in Q4, but the downshift doesn’t look sharp ...