The takeaway is that markets aren’t pricing in any sort of “succession premium” tied to any one chairman. The glidepath of monetary policy — regardless of Powell’s successor — appears structural, anchored to the Fed’s backward-looking framework . If that holds, it would mark a break from recent history.

What will Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signal about interest rates at this year's Jackson Hole gathering? The central-bank gathering has sometimes been a venue for marking shifts in Fed policy,